Your appraisal is coming up. You have been told you are "on track" for the next level, possibly next cycle. Meanwhile a recruiter has called with a role one step up, at another company, for noticeably more money. Do you wait, or do you go?
Most people make this call on gut feel, a frustrating week or the size of one offer. This guide gives you a better way: what the numbers actually say, the signals that a promotion is real, the hidden costs of moving, and a simple scorecard to decide.
Last checked: 8 October 2026.
What the numbers say about staying and switching
Switching usually pays more in the short term. In the United States, ADP's July 2026 pay data showed median annual pay growth of 7.0% for people who changed jobs, against 4.4% for people who stayed. In India, Aon's salary survey projects an average increase of 9.1% for 2026, while a June 2026 foundit survey of more than 2,500 professionals found that 70% expect a raise of 21% or more from a new employer.
But pay is only half the picture. A well-known Wharton study by Matthew Bidwell, published in 2011, found that external hires at a US investment bank were paid about 18% to 20% more than internal staff promoted into similar jobs, yet received lower performance ratings in their first two years and were more likely to leave. Moving buys a higher starting salary. It does not buy a smoother first year.
So the real question is not "where is the bigger number?" It is "where will I grow faster over the next three years?"
Signs your promotion is real
"You are on track" means very little on its own. These signals mean a lot more:
There is a role to promote you into. A vacancy, a budgeted new position or a clear plan for one. Without a role, a promotion depends on a reorganisation nobody has planned.
Your manager can name the gap. If you ask "what would make you confident I am ready?" and get two or three specific answers, the path exists. If you get "keep doing what you are doing", it may not.
You are already doing parts of the next job. Leading a project, representing the team in senior meetings, reviewing others' work. Most promotions recognise work already being done.
Someone senior beyond your manager knows your work. Promotion decisions are often made in a room you are not in. You need at least one advocate there.
There is a date. A named review cycle, not "soon" or "when things settle down".
If three or more of these are true, staying is often the stronger choice. If one or none is true, waiting can quietly cost you years.
The hidden costs of switching
A higher offer can still be the wrong move. Before you accept, count the costs that do not appear in the offer letter:
Starting again on trust. Your reputation does not travel with you. Expect six to twelve months before people rely on your judgement the way your current team does.
A probation period and, in many companies, the newest joiner being the most exposed if there are cuts.
Unvested pay you leave behind, such as a bonus paid after the appraisal cycle, retention payments or stock that has not vested yet.
A title that is not really a step up. A "Senior Manager" title in a smaller team can carry less scope than your current role. Compare responsibilities, team size and decision rights, not the title.
The hidden costs of staying
Staying has costs too, and they are easier to miss because nothing changes on any given day.
Pay compression. Annual increases on your current salary can leave you below what the company pays new joiners for the same role.
Being typecast. The longer you excel at your current job, the more some managers see you as indispensable in it, which can slow your move up.
Skills going stale. If your role has not stretched you in a year, you are maintaining rather than growing, and the market notices that before you do.
A simple scorecard to decide
Score each question from 1 to 5 for your current company and for the outside option, then compare the totals. Be honest, and ask someone who knows your work to check your answers.
Growth: where will I learn more in the next two years?
Scope: where will I have bigger decisions, a larger team or more visible work?
Certainty: how sure is the promotion here, and how solid is the offer there?
Pay over three years: not just the starting number, but realistic increases, bonus and anything you would forfeit.
People: who would I work for, and would they invest in me?
Readiness: am I actually ready for the bigger role, or would I be stretched too far, too fast?
If the totals are close, staying usually wins, because a known path with people who already trust you is worth more than a small pay gap. If the outside option leads by a clear margin on growth and scope, not just pay, it is usually worth the move.
Before you decide, have one honest conversation
Many people leave without ever asking for the promotion directly. Book time with your manager, say you want to move up, and ask three questions: what would make them confident you are ready, what the timeline is, and what support you will get. Their answer is often the most useful data you will collect.
Handle the conversation with care. Mentioning an outside offer can speed things up, but it can also make you look like a flight risk. Use it only if you are genuinely prepared to leave. Our free course Managing Up covers how to raise career goals with your manager without it sounding like a threat.
Know your readiness before anyone else decides
Whichever way you lean, the decision is easier when you know where you actually stand against the next role, not where you hope you stand.
On MinTraq you can set a promotion or a new role as your Career Journey and take an assessment built around that role and level. You see where you are ready and where the gaps are, then get learning matched to those gaps. If you choose to move, the Interview Prep Kit and a practice interview with Mira help you prepare for a specific company. Start free on MinTraq.
Frequently asked questions
Is it better to get promoted internally or switch jobs?
It depends on your growth over the next few years, not only the pay. Switching usually brings a higher starting salary, while internal promotion builds on trust you already have. If a real promotion with a date and a role exists, staying is often the stronger choice. If it does not, a move may be better.
How much more do people earn when they switch jobs?
It varies by country and role. ADP data for the United States showed median pay growth of 7.0% for job changers against 4.4% for job stayers in July 2026. In India, a June 2026 foundit survey found that 70% of professionals expect a raise of 21% or more from a new employer, compared with an average 2026 increase of about 9% projected by Aon.
How do I know if my company will promote me?
Look for concrete signals: an actual role to move into, a manager who can name the specific gaps you need to close, senior people who know your work, and a date for the decision. Vague encouragement without these is a warning sign.
Should I tell my manager I have another offer?
Only if you are prepared to leave. An outside offer can speed up a promotion or pay discussion, but it can also make you look like a flight risk. A conversation about your goals and timeline is usually a better first step.
How long should I wait for a promotion?
If your manager cannot give you a clear path and timeline after a direct conversation, and nothing changes over the next review cycle, it is reasonable to start looking. Waiting longer without a plan rarely changes the outcome.
Sources and disclaimer
This guide is general career information, not financial or legal advice. Pay figures are averages and medians, and your own situation may differ.
Sources: ADP National Employment Report, July 2026. Aon Salary Increase and Turnover Survey 2025-26 (India). foundit Appraisal Survey 2026. Matthew Bidwell, "Paying More to Get Less", Administrative Science Quarterly, 2011.